Android or iPhone? What would you get? Mobile Pundits choose Google.

MM Team on September 10th, 2010 in Android News

Courtsy of  John Cook TechTalk on Wednesday, September 8, 2010, 6:09pm PDT

Google. Apple. RIM. Microsoft. Nokia. Who is in the best position to control the mobile ecosystem of the future? That was one of the recurring discussion points today as leaders from wireless companies both big and small converged on Seattle for the Mobile Future Forward conference, a one-day confab led by industry guru Chetan Sharma.

The opportunity in front of all of these companies was spelled out clearly by Mike Sievert, chief commercial officer at Kirkland-based Clearwire.

“Mobile broadband brings together the two biggest trends, in some sense, in the history of technology,” Sievert said. “And I don’t think it is an exaggeration to assert that. To think that the two biggest trends in the history of technology probably are the Internet — broadband Internet in particular –and the whole idea of mobility. And they have lived in separate worlds up until now.”

There was no consensus on who would come out on top of what is shaping up to be an epic technology battle. But industry leaders certainly voiced their opinions throughout the day, with most of the nods going to Google’s Android and Apple’s iPhone platforms.

That’s definitely the safe bet at the moment, even though Android currently ranks third in mobile market share and Apple iOS ranks fourth behind Symbian and RIM’s BlackBerry OS.

But as RealNetworks Chairman Rob Glaser pointed out, the “superphones” created by Google and Apple have helped the U.S. reclaim the innovation title in mobile development. “The U.S. has gone, in many ways, from being a follower of global trends to a leader of global trends,” said Glaser, who recently joined Accel Partners as a venture partner. “That’s a tremendous opportunity to develop models here and to do what we did in the PC Internet space which is globalize and leverage our early learning in the U.S. market.”

In his view, Nokia and RIM’s BlackBerry will have a hard time competing in a world which is increasingly being driven by mobile application platforms popularized by Apple and Android.

“The thing that is especially powerful about the superphones is the energy that’s behind these app platforms,” said Glaser. “That’s what we saw in the PC industry with the ascent of Windows in the 90s — it was because it had all of the application momentum…. The tidal wave of application energy and all of that entrepreneurial creativity that’s going on behind Android and iPhone apps will be a wave that washes around the world.”

Glaser said he wouldn’t write off either Nokia or BlackBerry — both of which could “generate excitement for developers.” But he added that neither really have the tradition of building businesses which would lead to a standard application environment.

“It is a totally different world and if they don’t respond to the differences, then the tidal wave of all of the applications will wash over them,” Glaser said. Ironically, he added that Microsoft — which rode the application developer model to success on PCs — faces a similar challenge in mobile.

Clearwire’s Sievert

Sievert also expressed optimism about Android, though he pointed out his bias in mobile operating systems given that Google is a major shareholder in Clearwire. Nonetheless, he said smartphone adoption is surging, driven largely by the iPhone and Android.

“From our view, it is clear that Android and iOS are here to stay and on track to be the two big ones,” said Sievert. “Given the diverse ecosystem, it is looking to us like Android will overtake iOS and then stay there. We are making a bet on Android.”

Sievert also expressed optimism about Windows Phone 7, though he once again pointed out a bias given that he used to work at Microsoft.

“I think they will back,” said Sievert, though likely behind Apple and Android in the U.S.

Subba Rao, CEO of Tata DoCoMo, also suggested strength in Android going forward. “Open platforms tend to be more powerful than anything that is closed for the simple reason that it brings in more partnerships and there’s a lot more money to be shared,” he said. “The pie expands the many more people who make money there. So, I think Android will definitely be the largest in every way of speaking.”

Interestingly, AT&T’s Fred Devereux also expressed optimism about Android even though his company has ridden to success on the back of the iPhone. “I think the headline is that Android has strong momentum and people really like it,” said Devereux, president of AT&T’s west region. “And my competitors did a great job making Android matter like we did … making 3G and iPhone matter. And now it is certainly more than a two horse race, but it is not just about the iPhone anymore. So, we like that we can offer all of them.”

Eyejot founder and conference attendee David Geller wondered if those comments signaled a time in the near future when AT&T would no longer have an exclusive agreement with Apple for the iPhone. Devereux, of course, didn’t mention that possibility in today’s remarks. However, it’s been widely speculated that the iPhone will be arriving on Verizon some time in 2011.

Tags: android, Google Android Market Place, Google News, Iphone, Nexus One

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